Thursday, May 31, 2012


Edward Murphy was an aerospace engineer who is responsible for Murphy's Law: If anything bad can happen it will!
Last month I appeared before the S.F. Bay Area Options Group with a rare stock/DITM recommendation that I thought highly profitable as well as a margin of safety - Cliff Resources, which I personally bought at $70/share. At the time of the talk, it was $67 - today it is $47.
Condolences on anyone who followed me into this torpedo - but I still feel this 1 of a 100 instance is more a reason FOR DITM, than against it.
Being a Technician, I usually rely on other "experts" for Fundamental Analysis - S&P, Schwab, Ned Davis, Reuters, etc. S&P still rates CLF 4*, Merrill just lowered it to Neutral after it fell over 50% from its 2011 high!! It now seems that the excessive Premium in the Call was,as usual, warranted for things to come (expected IV).  In my talk I mentioned that, as I was going on vacation, I would put on a  Bear put spread below my Call price (62 1/2) - I did: 57 1/2 X 55 puts. I paid $.30 and closed them for a $2.43 profit; I have since traded 50 X 47 1/2 spreads and now in a weekly 50 X 49 - all profitable and ITM.
Just as with BP in 2010 - it was a Perfect Storm - May has seen huge declines in stocks (worst month for down days for awhile) with which CLF is highly correlated; commodities - Oil down 18%, Gold down 6% MTD are also tanking; with RS Steel going bankrupt , all steels are dropping with China's slowdown. It appears to be a Blood-In-The-Street moment.
Technicians know that historically, the first trading day of the month (e.g.,tomorrow) outperforms the rest of the month combined. On Oct.4, 2011, CLF spiked down to $47.31 - today's low (so far) $47.06. Hopefully, Buyers will again come in at this level. My SELL filter is to break support with 3 daily closes - I hope to hold on throughout tomorrow's Unemployment release.
Had I only bought 200 CLF, my loss would now be $4600 (less $125) in dividends.
If CLF stays the same (unlikely) until Oct., or I bail out - my overall loss would be under $1500 - still bad. If it rebounds, as most stocks to with a V-spike: original profits, plus $270 from the Put spreads, would be gained by Oct. expiry.
 We shall know in the fullness of time!

1 comment:

  1. Until the market can show me that it is in an uptrend I don't think buying and hold or DITM calls is a good strategy. Shorting stock, put spreads and selling DITM calls may provide better results.