Monday, August 4, 2014

Zero Dark 2000

In another futile attempt to breach the triple zero on the SPX the expected selloff last week was aborted today (so far) byt he old reliable McClellan Oscillator dropping below -50 Friday (minus 89!). August has not been very profitable the past three years, and the JASON (July-Nov.) period spells caution as well. A/D on the NYSE was terrible (-2288 net declines); Insider selling is still heavy, but steady - especially Gold, where commercial traders are huge.

Monthly figures for ETF flows for June finally arrived, with increases in all, except bonds - margin interest again rose to almost new highs, which is positive for the market, via correlation.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 8/1/2014 7/26/2014
Indices: DJIA  16493 16960
  NAZ  4352 4449
SPX  1925 1978
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.9/3.6 8.7/2.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.8 3
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17 12.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 484/2772 1503/1720
Weekly Net: -2288 -217
     Cumulative: 161470 163758
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 260/191 435/91
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 149/254 201/145
McClellan  Oscillator -89 -31
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 287 599
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 55.6 56.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.2 17.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 31.1 29.6
Bear  31.1 29.9
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k .3/5 .2/6
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (149k) (160k)
CEOinsider selling 22:1 44:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:25 175:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B (8.8B) (2.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  464B MAY
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1116/440/274 MAY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.48% 0.49%